Guide To Creating a Dany Heatley Rumor

Earlier this week there was yet another Dany Heatley trade rumor that hit the internet. The Heatley saga has served to keep a portion of the hockey loving public entertained through the most boring time of year—but for others of us, it’s just plain annoying.

When the story first broke that Heatley requested a trade from Ottawa, it was completely understandable that people from 30 cities were speculating where the Canadian-born sniper would land. Fans were excited about the possibility of landing a perennial 40 goal scorer. People in Ottawa were wondering what they could get for a 40 goal scorer. People in Toronto just wanted to make fun of people from Ottawa. It was all understandable.

But after the June 30th Edmonton Oilers deal that went sideways, there has been a marked difference in the stories about Heatley. I’m not one to really believe rumors in the first place, but doesn’t it just seem like people are making stuff up to use as filler until the season starts? It’s like bloggers and journalists alike are just grasping at straws hoping that something they write will stick.

Here’s the formula that they use to make up a Heatley rumor. You take one of his strengths, match it with a team that could use one of his strengths, and then blatantly disregard everything else when publishing the fabricated idea. Did you notice how common sense never enters into the equation? Return value, team expectations and chemistry are all ignored because—well, they don’t really matter.

The first thing to understand is Dany Heatley’s strengths. He’s a goal scorer, plain and simple. He shoots a lot, he scores and he scores on the power play. So if you want to make up a rumor, which teams are desperate for a guy that shoots a lot and scores goals? Let’s take a look at some of the worst teams from last year in each of those areas.

Goals Per Game
30. Colorado Avalanche
29. New York Islanders
28. New York Rangers
27. Los Angeles Kings
26. Phoenix Coyotes
25. Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Nashville Predators
23. Ottawa Senators
22. Minnesota Wild
21. Columbus Blue Jackets
20. Dallas Stars

Power Play Percentages
30. Columbus Blue Jackets
29. New York Rangers
28. Phoenix Coyotes
27. Dallas Stars
26. Nashville Predators
25. Colorado Avalanche
24. Florida Panthers
23. New York Islanders
22. Edmonton Oilers
21. Calgary Flames

Shots Per Game
30. Minnesota Wild
29. St. Louis Blues
28. Phoenix Coyotes
27. Edmonton Oilers
26. Atlanta Thrashers
25. Vancouver Canucks
24. Tampa Bay Lightning
23. Colorado Avalanche
22. Dallas Stars
21. Columbus Blue Jackets

When you take a look at these team rankings, you see the same teams coming up over and over again. The Rangers couldn’t score on the power play. Actually, they couldn’t score period. So wouldn’t New York be the ideal place for him to land? How about Heatley for Chris Drury and Marc Staal? Is that stupid? Of course it is—just like most of the rumors that have been coming out.

The Columbus Blue Jackets were in the bottom third of the league in all three categories. They must be in the hunt for a sniper like Heatley, right? Doesn’t Heatley have a connection to Ken Hitchcock? Don’t the Blue Jackets have some great young talent that they could offer the Senators for their rebuild? It’s a match made in heaven! Heatley for Jakub Voracek, Derick Brassard and Kris Russell. Write it down—my inside sources tell me it’s a done deal.

The Dallas Stars obviously need a guy like Dany Heatley in their locker room. They had problems scoring last season, so they must be in the mix for Heatley, right? They need to shoot the puck more so they can put more pucks in the net. I got an email from a reliable source that tells me that the two teams are in serious talks as we speak. Dany Heatley to the Stars for Trevor Daley, Loui Eriksson and James Neal.

But need is only part of the formula for the rumor mongers. Another fun exercise is to look at teams that have salary cap space and then create stories that have high priced guys going to the cheap teams. There are some other factors with this, but here are the teams that have the most money available.

Available Cap Space
1. New York Islanders ($18.8 mil)
2. Nashville Predators ($15.1 mil)
3. Colorado Avalanche ($13.2 mil)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets ($11.8 mil)
5. Phoenix Coyotes ($10.9 mil)
6. Atlanta Thrashers ($9.2 mil)
7. Dallas Stars ($8.1 mil)
8. Florida Panthers ($6.5 mil)
9. New Jersey Devils ($6.4 mil)
10. Los Angeles Kings ($5.6 mil)

Of course he’s not going back to Atlanta for obvious reasons and Phoenix has their own problems to deal with. But isn’t it interesting how most of the teams that have a problem scoring are also the same teams that don’t spend any money? Look at all the space the Predators have under the cap! Heatley’s expensive—maybe he could be a good fit in the Hockey Tonk (Section 303’s term, not mine). Don’t they need that top flight winger that they’ve been looking for since Alexander Radulov left for the KHL? I was on a conference call that implied that there’s a Heatley deal in the works for David Legwand, Ryan Suter and Joel Ward. Maybe a pick too—the connection on the speaker phone wasn’t very clear.

The truth is he’s probably NOT going anywhere. At this point, his trade value is so much lower than his actual value on the ice; it would be stupid for the Senators to move him. Mix in the fact that they just gave him his $4 million bonus on July 1st, and it’s going to take a better deal than Cogliano, Smid and Penner to make Bryan Murray pull the trigger.

We all have moments like this at work—we don’t like bosses, supervisors or even co-workers and we want a change. In our head, we might want a transfer—hell, we might want to quit. But we rarely ever ask for those things. That’s what separates most of us from Dany Heatley. We’re adults. He’s not.

The most likely resolution to this mess isn’t going to be a one-sided trade for the Senators. No, it’s probably going to be a meeting with Bryan Murray, Dany Heatley and Cory Clouston and everyone wearing their big boy pants.

If you look at all of those trade proposals, fans of the home team would absolutely freak out if their team made that kind of trade. The trick is: if you’re in Ottawa it seems legit and if you’re not from that market, then they just seem like good young players. If you’re a fan of the team that’s part of the rumor, you know that the players that are being offered are cornerstones to your team. You KNOW that your team would never do anything that stupid—but no one else realizes how dumb it is. Before the draft, how do you think Kings fans felt about the Alexander Frolov, Jack Johnson and the 5th overall for Heatley rumors?

So next time you see a rumor floating around, ask yourself this: is there any reason in the world that Team A would trade away great young talent and part of their future for a guy that is trying to wiggle his way out of a 2nd city? Just use common sense—that should give you enough ammunition to shoot holes through 90% of these rumors. Use critical thinking skills and that will help you eliminate the other 10%.

And if you really want to hear rumors—just swing by here and ask. I’ll be happy to pull something out of my ass to entertain you.

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Update: Another strong reason that people find for creating Dany Heatley rumors is if there’s a big trade. With Christian Erhoff and Brad Lukowich moving up the coast from San Jose to Vancouver, you’ll hear some people talking about how the Canucks are now front runners to trade an extra defenseman for Heatley. Likewise, you’ll hear others talking about how San Jose has created a little more room under the salary cap to bring in the high priced Ottawa winger. Like everything else– take them with a grain of salt.

Heatley to Vancouver for Bieksa, Demitra and Cory Schneider
or
Heatley to San Jose for Marleau, Clowe and a pick

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