Roundtable Discussion: Northwest Division Preview

Welcome to the Great Northwest—where retired legends end their careers with snow blowers, people line the streets wearing red 12 months of the year and aliens play on the top line in Vancouver. Where teams watch their perpetually injured superstar leave via free agency only to replace him with another perpetually injured star. A place where people named Dany Heatley don’t want to play—and where fans don’t want Dustin Penner to play. Yes, welcome to the Northwest Division.

Concluding our weeklong Roundtable project, we have some talented writers from all over the Northwest Division. Richard Loat is here to speak for Vancouver via the Canucks Hockey Blog. A couple of Nations are represented by Jonathan Willis from Oilers Nation and Two Line Pass from Flames Nation. David from Mile High Hockey makes his 2nd appearance here at View From My Seats and WRT from Hitting The Post makes his VFMS debut! All in all, a great collection of hockey minds…

If you’re looking for a team that doesn’t play in the Northwest Division, we’ve covered everyone throughout the week. Check here for a complete listing of Blogger Division Previews we’ve had during our Roundtable week. Even if you don’t have a favorite team—there’s good stuff on every team previewing the upcoming year.  If there’s something you see that makes you want to say something, leave a comment!

And without further adieu, our final Roundtable Preview:

1. Why is your team going to be better than they were last season?

Richard Loat (Canucks): They aren’t necessarily. They gave up a lot. They lost a bunch of free agents that werent big names, but were role players. They lost Ohlund who has left a big hole on the Canucks blue line. We seem to have lost Sundin, and if Luongo continues his inconsistency there’s a good chance we wont. There’s a lot to be excited about as a lot of players are coming into their own. If the Peanut Butter Burrows line works out (Sedin Sedin Burrows) then we could see a Burrows that breaks the 30 G mark this year, and that will be a key to the Canucks playing better than last year. Last year Burrows only got half a season with the twins, but if you put him out there from the get go, I think you have a different team altogether. The Canucks have a lot to prove after having on paper last year a team that was the best in the franchise’s history.

After the re-signing of Luongo it’s clear he’s committed to the team, and the addition of Ehrhoff and Schneider to the team give us a defense that is substantially more solid than last year, and that’s based on a D-corps last year that was amongst the league’s best. Schneider’s point shot is comprabable to Salo, which means if Salo goes down, we have a backup, and if they’re both healthy, we’ve got two howitzers from the point.

TLP (Flames): The Flames will be better because Jay Bouwmeester is on the team and Brent Sutter is roughly 131 times the coach Mike Keenan is. Bouwmeester helps in every way. The power play, penalty kill and 5-on-5 will all be better simply because he’s probably the best all-around defenseman in the league now that Nicklas Lidstrom’s lost a step and a half. At the same time, it takes an already-deep D corps (on paper at least) and forces everyone back a slot. A theoretical top pairing of Regehr-Phaneuf is no longer required, and pushes one of two Canadian Olympians (hopefully Phaneuf) to the second pairing.

As for Brent Sutter, well, he might actually have the boys practice the power play, which, I swear to God, Keenan didn’t do. Really.

WRT (Wild): I’m really not all that sure that the Wild WILL be better than last season. They will, however, be a markedly different team than last season. Gone are GM/President Doug Risebrough, Head Coach Jacques Lemaire, the infamous ‘five-year plan’ that was not fully implemented in 9 seasons and the insistence on ‘the trap’ play whether the Wild were up 6-0 or down 6-0. There was somewhat of an intimidation factor with the old regime as well (witness Brent Burns, playing for five weeks with a concussion) and that has been thrown out the door. This Wild team may be a lot better; they could very well be a lot worse. They will be a lot more entertaining; that we know already.

Jonathan Willis (Oilers): Internal growth. Sam Gagner took major steps forward last season – steps that didn’t show up on the scoresheet – and now it’s time for an offensive outburst from him. Much of the team is very young, and continued experience is going to help players like Cogliano, Nilsson, O’Sullivan, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Smid, and even older players like Penner and Hemsky. Aside from that, I’d expect the coaching change to improve special teams – Wayne Fleming, the new assistant coach, is a highly regarded powerplay organizer – and it’s quite possible that Quinn gets more out of players MacTavish didn’t use well (specifically Dustin Penner and Marc Pouliot).

David (Avalanche): I’m not at all confident that they will be better. But, if they are, it’ll likely be because of improved play from the young forwards, better goaltending and better defense under a new coaching regime.

2. What part of your team scares the hell out of you this season?

Richard Loat (Canucks): I’m terrified of how much our team is built on Ifs this year.
-IF Burrows clicks with the Sedins again.
-IF Bernier comes back in shape he’ll be an upgrade
-IF Hodgson pans out and the young kids step up.
-IF Kesler continues to be a Selke player without Sundin who had a huge effect on his performance
-IF Sundin is coming back at all
-IF The blue line steps up to fill Ohlund’s spot
-IF Salo (can give us more than 60 games), Bieksa, Demitra, Rypien, can all stay healthy

The Canucks season is built on a lot of intangibles right now and it’s disconcerting, to put a positive spin on it, to even speculate what could happen if ALL of those don’t happen. I don’t even want to think about the What if *he* doesnt… part. Coupled with the fact we’re going to likely go into the season maxed to the cap and if we learned anything from Calgary last year, we’ know that’s not good.

TLP (Flames): That Miikka Kiprusoff really is broken beyond repair. That’s first and foremost in my mind. It terrifies me to think that this former Vezina winner is slipping ever closer to what I call the Jim Carey Zone, where goals-against averages balloon into the mid-3s and save percentages dip into the .880s. Then a concern that barely even registers as being secondary is that no one will be capable of replacing Mike Cammalleri’s goal total, at least singlehandedly.

WRT (Wild): Not much. The Wild rid themselves of a lot of dead weight over the summer, and even the 3rd pairing defense (Shane Hnidy & Greg Zanon) are a quantum leap over last season’s group. They got rid of two of the most worthless players in the NHL (Martin Skoula, Marc-Andre Bergeron) and the NHL’s biggest groin problem (Marian Gaborik) and actually were able to save cap space should problems develop later. If the Wild do decide to trade backup goalie Josh Harding, however, the goaltending does look somewhat shaky after Niklas Backstrom, should he become injured.

Jonathan Willis (Oilers): The list of things that scare me about the Edmonton Oilers is simply too big to fit into a single sentence. The penalty-kill last season was atrocious, and it’s lost Kyle Brodziak and has added no on-ice help. The top-six remains small and young and for the most part unable to play a complete game. The starting goaltender is an injury-prone 36-year old with a very green backup. The bottom six features players with health issues (Pisani, Moreau) and other players who are either young, questionable, or simply not that good (everyone else). The depth, frequently heralded by fans as being very good, consists of players who couldn’t get the Oilers’ farm team out of the AHL basement last season. Even the defense – the strong point of the team – relies heavily on a pair of older players with injury history and occasionally questionable defensive ability (Souray and Visnovsky).

David (Avalanche): After last year, there’s not much that can scare me. We’re officially rebuilding, so even if we stink, the youngsters should get playing time and it was kind of fun to have a high draft pick this summer.

3. Every year there are players that break onto the scene as all-stars or even superstars. Sometimes they’re rookies that are expected to be great, sometimes they are rookies that shock the world and sometimes they’re younger players that simply come into their own. Who is someone on your team that we should all look to have a breakout season?

Richard Loat (Canucks): There are the expected Kesler and Burrows. Frick and Frack had breakout years last year, but are expected to get even better this year. If I were looking for a new breakthrough it would be looking towards Cody Hodgson. It’s been a LONG time since the Canucks last had a prospect to get excited over who would likely challenge for the Calder. Hodgson if he doesnt get a roster spot will be sent down to the OHL because of complications and his inability to play in the AHL. This leads me to believe he’s likely to make the team, and give Canucks fans something to cheer for that they haven’t had a chance to participate in for a while – the race for the Calder. Check for Cody.

TLP (Flames): I don’t know that anyone will break out hugely like the aforementioned Mr. Cammalleri did last season, but there are a few candidates to become legitimate players. Rene Bourque could be the guy. Dustin Boyd could be the guy. Adam Pardy could be the guy. None of them could be the guy. Someone else entirely could be. The point is I don’t know.

WRT (Wild): Well, since the Wild (no thanks to Risebrough) have precious few players in the pipeline, there will be very little help coming up thru the ranks soon. Most Wild observers believe this season will be the end of the Benoit Pouliot experiment; so far, this guy has been the classic interpretation of ‘Million-dollar talent, 10-cent head’. James Sheppard will be asked to either step it up or get to steppin’ to somewhere else; he’s been relegated to the fourth line for most of the last two seasons. Colton Gillies will benefit from a year in the AHL with the Houston Aeros. He needs to beef up and get some confidence, and now that he’s reached 20 years old, he can go to Houston and get some badly needed experience (and, Gulf Coast seafood).

Jonathan Willis (Oilers): The list of underachievers last year was long, so the list of possible breakout players this year is too. Depending on how the coach uses him and on how effective the powerplay is, Ales Hemsky could have a career season and move into the upper echelon of NHL  players. Patrick O’Sullivan and Sam Gagner are strong bets to have breakthrough years as well, while Robert Nilsson should also bounce back. The best bet though, for my money, is Dustin Penner – an effective if incomplete player who should return to the 30-goal range.

David (Avalanche): I guess the easy answer would be Matt Duchene, who has a good chance of making the team right off the bat. I’m going to go with Chris Stewart; I really liked what I saw from Stewart last year – speed, toughness, hands. I think he has a chance to have an excellent season.

4. We all know that watching a team for 82 games, you start to appreciate things that casual fans won’t necessarily know. Who’s the guy on your team that doesn’t get nearly the respect that he deserves?

Richard Loat (Canucks): On the Canucks the fans treat most guys with all the respect in the world. But the unsung hero in my mind is Ryan Johnson. That guy’s out there blocking shots from the first shift in game one, to the last shot when you’re down 7-5 in an elimination game in the second round of the playoffs. (I’m not bitter at all about last season… no not at all) He’s a warrior. Broken arm, broken foot and he’s still out there. Big appreciation of RyJo from this fan.

TLP (Flames): Cory Sarich for sure. The guy might not earn his moderately reasonable contract, but if you knocked half a million off his yearly salary everyone would be acting like he was the biggest bargain in the league. He’s an excellent defenseman and helps clean up a lot of Phaneuf-created messes at the back. Sarich is, in short, a bad dude.

WRT (Wild): Easy one here. Nick Schultz, one of the NHL’s premiere shutdown defensemen, doesn’t nearly get the accolades he deserves. He’s not afraid to be the go-to guy on back-door chances, either. He’s been overshadowed by Burns, Kim Johnsson (who will be an UFA at the end of the coming season) and Marek Zidlicky (ditto his upcoming UFA status), all of whom score more than Schultz. But, you need someone back there so the other guys can do their thing, and that’s Schultz.

Jonathan Willis (Oilers): Tom Gilbert. I was tempted to throw out Shawn Horcoff’s name – his all-round game is exceptional, but Gilbert’s not as well known around the league as Horcoff. Gilbert’s an exceptional skater for his size, plays well positionally for the most part, and moves the puck effortlessly. He was invited to Team USA’s Olympic camp, and while he’s been largely ignored by forecasters he was the second highest-scoring American defenseman (behind only Brian Rafalski) in the NHL last year – and he’s only 26 years old.

David (Avalanche): John-Michael Liles. He’s thought of as mostly an offensive defenseman and that was certainly the case earlier in his career. I think he’s improved his defensive game substantially over the years and for a little guy he’s quite feisty. I think his all-around game is underrated.

5. Prediction time: If you were throwing down some serious money, how do you think the final standings of the Northwest Division will shake out? More importantly, which teams do you think are going to make the playoffs from the Northwest?

Richard Loat (Canucks):
1. Calgary – Playoffs
2. Vancouver – Playoffs
3. Edmonton – Playoffs
4. Minnesota
5. Colorado

The NW is always so close. I’m not a betting man though. Last year I predicted the Canucks to finish third and Calgary or Edmonton to take first and second. It’s always so close, but I think Colorado is going to suffer another couple years as they rebuild. Minnesota lost a lot, and under a new coach I don’t expect them to be a force to reckon with as much as in years gone past. Calgary beefed up their Blue Line which has the potential to make their PP monstrous, but I still hold the Canucks in contention for that top spot because if all the IFs go the right way, you have a completely different team. Edmonton will make the playoffs this year after missing last year. I think the change behind the bench will be the thing that pushes them over the top and into the top 8. I’ll never predict the Canucks at the top of the division unless they play in the South East. It’s just bad karma.

TLP (Flames):
1. Vancouver*
2. Calgary*
3. Minnesota*
4. Edmonton
5. Colorado

WRT (Wild): Well, I think the Wild are kind of the wild card here. Frankly, until we see them in training camp, we really don’t know which team will actually show up. But, being realistic (and putting down the green Kool-Aid), here’s how I see the Northwest…
(in order of division finish)

1. Calgary. The Flames still have the most talent in the division, despite the best efforts of the Sutters not to let them do their thing. Miikka Kiprusoff needs to be more consistent, and Jarome Iginla can’t be injured for any length of time. Scoring from their 3rd line would help, also.

2. Vancouver. The Canucks lost a lot this summer (in order to re-sign their most prized assets, the Sedin twins) and their killer schedule around the Olympics will not help make things better in the BC Lower Mainland. Can Roberto Luongo stand on his head repeatedly? He may have to for the ‘Nucks to have a shot at the post-season.

3. Minnesota. If the new regime can unleash the offense, the Wild could realistically compete for the NW division title. But, with the number of questions needing answers — quickly — and a horrible schedule in October (6 of the Wild’s first seven games are on the road) the Wild may be playing catch-up with themselves all season.

4. Edmonton. Can anyone else think of a team that did less this summer? The Oilers are going to be at a crossroads soon. No one wants to play up there. Their inclusion in the Dany Heatley saga, I believe, scared off a number of potential Oilers. Nikolai Khabibulin better be the second coming of Grant Fuhr…or it will be a long, cold winter in the ‘City of Champions’, as Edmonton bills itself.

5. Colorado. Owner Stan Kroneke is in full rebuild mode, and having Joe Sakic call it a career didn’t help the transition any. The Avs are stuck. And, they know it. Look for a fire sale on the Front Range in late February.

Who’s getting to the post-season? Probably Calgary, Vancouver. Possibly Minnesota (depending on how they do early on, we’ll know if the Wild are for real before December). Doubtful: Edmonton. No way in hell: Colorado.

Jonathan Willis (Oilers): It’s still early to make these sorts of predictions, but I think Calgary and Vancouver will be neck-and-neck for the division crown, with Vancouver having the edge because of goaltending. I’d put Edmonton just ahead of Minnesota for third, with Colorado bringing up the rear. Both Calgary and Vancouver will make the playoffs, and I suspect that Edmonton will squeak in as well.

David (Avalanche): Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota, Colorado. I’m not really sure why I’m picking Edmonton here; it’s probably mostly because of Khabibulin.

Also, I hate Edmonton much less than I hate Calgary and Vancouver. I’ll take the 3 Canadian teams as making the playoffs. I’d place the Wild higher, but I really don’t have a clue how quickly they’ll adjust to life without Jacques Lemaire.

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