Which is the Best Division in the NHL?

I love how when people start comparing divisions, just about everyone thinks that THEIR division is the most difficult. I know that I’m guilty of it. Hell, we have a podcast that talks about the Pacific every week. I know that I have friend that is a Flyers fan that talks about how hard it is to play against the Pens, Rangers and Devils 6 times per year (he makes no mention of the Isles). And just about everyone in the Central Division will say it with great authority after last season.

Unfortunately, every division has their struggling teams as well. For every Sharks team, there is a Ducks team (this year). For every Calgary Flames team, the division will have its Minnesota Wild. And for every Capitals team, there is the rest of the Southeast Division.

Here’s my question: How do teams do outside of their division? It’s kind of like college football and the strength of schedule. Everyone will talk about how they beat up on one another—but if they sucked when they played other teams, I’m not going to listen how good they are. It’s nothing more than a self-perpetuating myth.

By no means am I a statistician. If you’re into hardcore numbers everyday, let me suggest you check out Behind The Net or mc79hockey.com. Both are amazing sites when it comes to statistics. But if you’ve been here for any length of time—you know that’s not exactly what we do. The following is simply a set of stats and some conclusions that I drew from the numbers. I didn’t figure out the standard deviation of the Rangers record against the West and there’s no mention of “regressing to the mean.” But there is some hockey knowledge and common sense mixed in.

I hope you enjoy this. It was certainly an eye opening exercise for me—hopefully you get something out of it as well.

(Note: Statistics as of Friday, December 11, 2009)

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Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

The rest of the East against the Atlantic: 29-33-16
The Western Conference against the Atlantic: 24-12-3
The NHL’s record vs. the Atlantic Division: 53-45-19

Quick synopsis: The Atlantic looks pretty good when they’re playing their foes in the East. But when they play against the teams in the West, they are dominated.

Look ahead: You have to wonder how much these numbers are going to change in the future. It’s safe to say that the Flyers have underachieved and have the potential to make a run. But at the same time, it looks like the Islanders goal-differential is starting to catch up to them. Certainly looks like they’d balance each other out.

Northeast Division

The rest of the East against the Northeast: 36-24-11
The Western Conference against the Northeast: 22-14-4
The NHL’s record vs. the Northeast Division: 58-38-15

Quick synopsis: Like the Atlantic, the teams in the Northeast Division have a tough time against everyone out West. But, on the other hand, they are a tad below average when you look at how they fair against their own Conference.

Look ahead: The Bruins are playing out of their minds lately and the Maple Leafs are trying to prove to everyone that they’re not as awful as they looked. Anything can happen, but look for these statistics to get a little better for the Northeast before the season is over.

Southeast Division

The rest of the East against the Southeast: 46-20-7
The Western Conference against the Southeast: 24-20-8
The NHL’s record vs. the Southeast Division: 70-40-15

Quick synopsis: My God, no wonder every Eastern Conference team is happy when they get to play the Southeast. Oddly enough, they do a better job of holding their own against the West than the other two Eastern Conference Divisions. But they’re so awful against the East, I’m not sure anyone notices.

Look ahead: Take a nice good hard look at those numbers, because I doubt they’ll be changing anytime this season. The Capitals are one of the best teams in the NHL, the Hurricanes are one of the worst—and they’re both playing like it.

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Western Conference

Central Division

The rest of the West against the Central: 35-29-13
The Eastern Conference against the Central: 20-13-6
The NHL’s record vs. the Central Division: 55-42-19

Quick synopsis: This is the division that I EXPECTED to have the best record against the rest of the NHL. But thus far this season, the Blues, Red Wings and Blue Jackets have not met their preseason expectations. Their respective records don’t help defend their fans notion that they are the best division in hockey.

Look ahead: Watch out, because these numbers are going to get better. The Blues have been in the basement for most of the season—but they’re starting to play up to the level that we expected after last season. The Red Wings have been dealing with a TON of injuries and should turn it around when they start getting warm bodies back on the ice. I doubt the Blackhawks are going to falter any time soon.

Northwest Division

The rest of the West against the Northwest: 36-19-13
The Eastern Conference against the Northwest: 14-23-2
The NHL’s record vs. the Northwest Division: 50-42-15

Quick synopsis: I never would have thought this, but if you look at the raw stats, you could make a strong case that the Northwest is the best division in hockey right now. The Eastern Conference teams can’t beat them and teams in other divisions in the West can’t beat them. Right now, they’re the best.

Look ahead: What happens if the Minnesota Wild learn how to win on the road? What happens if their 4th place team adds to their 5 game winning streak? What happens if the Canucks start playing as well as everything thinks they should? Those should all cover the Avalanche if they fall back to Earth.

Pacific Division

The rest of the West against the Pacific: 36-27-6
The Eastern Conference against the Pacific: 17-20-6
The NHL’s record vs. the Pacific Division: 53-47-12

Quick synopsis: The two best teams in the Western Conference come from the Pacific. If the playoffs were to start today, 4 of the 5 playoff teams would come from this division. Yet, when you look at their records, they look very comparable to the other two Western Conference divisions.

Look ahead: If the Stars can win a game in overtime or the Ducks can get out of the Western Conference basement, these stats will get better. Those are the positives. But the negative—does anyone think the Kings will be on the top of the Western Conference at the end of the season? Does anyone think the Phoenix Coyotes will be one of the best teams in the West?

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To give a little bit of perspective, here are the final statistics from all the NHL teams from LAST season. This gives you an idea what’s an average record, who is performing above average and who is playing like the Carolina Hurricanes.

Last year: Eastern Conference Aggregate: 609-475-146 = 1364
Last year: Western Conference Aggregate: 621-473-136 = 1378
Last year: NHL Aggregate: 1230-948-282 = 2742
Last year: NHL Average: 41-32-9 = 91

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Big Picture

- The Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference. Each and EVERY division in the West has a winning record against divisions from the East. Conversely, the Eastern Conference doesn’t have a winning record against ANY division in the West.

- The worst division against teams in their own conference is BY FAR the Southwest. They are embarrassingly awful against the Atlantic and the Northeast. Judging by how many hockey media outlets there are in the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada, no wonder no one takes them seriously. Every time they see a team from the Southeast, they see them losing.

- When you look at the standings, the Pacific Division might be the best division in the NHL. But when you look at the divisional records, it’s a little harder to figure out how it’s possible.

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